Introduction
“Trade doesn’t just bring goods; it brings understanding, cooperation, and ultimately, peace” – Kofi Annan.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents one of the most ambitious economic initiatives on the African continent. It is the largest free trade area established in over 70 years, aims to unify Africa and overcome the colonial borders imposed during the 19th century Berlin conference.
Beyond its economic aspirations, the AfCFTA also holds the potential to contribute significantly to peace and stability in Africa, particularly in the conflict-prone Great Lakes region by fostering economic interdependence, creating jobs, and reducing poverty, the AfCFTA could help transform the Great Lakes region from a zone of conflict to a zone of cooperation and prosperity. In essence, Annan is suggesting that trade can be a tool for Diplomacy, bridging divides, and promoting global harmony.
This Article begins by providing a historical context of the Great Lakes region, setting the stage for an overview of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) and its economic potential. It explores how economic interdependence can serve as a pathway to peace, focusing on its capacity to create jobs, reduce poverty, curb illicit trade, and strengthen institutions. The article addresses the potential challenges the AfCFTA may encounter and proposes strategies to overcome these obstacles.
The Great Lakes Region: A Historical Context
The Great Lakes region of Africa, including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, and Tanzania, has long been a hotspot for conflict. The region’s rich in natural resources, including minerals like gold, diamonds, and coltan, have been both a blessing and a curse. While these resources can potentially drive economic development, they have also fuelled violent conflicts for decades, as different insurgency groups vie for control over these natural resources.
The legacy of ethnic tensions and weak governance structures have further exacerbated the instability in the region. Conflicts in the Great Lakes have often spilled over national borders, leading to a cycle of violence that has been difficult to break. The 1994 Genocide against Tutsi in Rwanda, the two Congo Wars (1996-1997 and 1998-2003), and ongoing conflicts involving various rebel groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo including the March 23 movement(M23) rebel group; are explicit reminders of the challenges facing the region.
The African Continental Free Trade Area: An Overview
The AfCFTA, which officially took effect on January 1, 2021, is a landmark agreement seeking to create a single market for goods and services across Africa. It aims to boost intra-African trade by reducing tariffs, eliminating non-tariff barriers, and harmonizing trade policies across the continent.
As of September 2023, nearly all African states have signed the AfCFTA agreement, with Eritrea being the sole exception (Zongwe, 2024). According to the Trade Law Centre on status of AfCFTA ratification, Of the 54 signatories,47 have ratified the agreement, resulting in an 87 % ratification rate. The seven countries that have yet to ratify are Benin, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Somalia, South Soudan, and Soudan. Eritrea has neither signed nor ratified the agreement. This means that a total of 8 out of 55 African nations have not yet joined the AfCFTA. (Trade Law Centre, 2023)
The potential economic benefits of the AfCFTA are immense. According to the World Bank, the agreement could lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty and increase the continent’s income by $450 billion by 2035 (Ngom, 2023). However, the AfCFTA is not just an economic tool but also a vehicle for peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
Economic Interdependence as a Pathway to Peace
One of the key ways the AfCFTA can promote peace in the Great Lakes region is by fostering economic interdependence among its member states. When countries are economically interdependent, they have a vested interest in maintaining peaceful relations with their neighbors. Trade creates mutual benefits, and conflict costs become higher as it disrupts these economic ties.
For example, if the DRC, Rwanda, and Uganda were to increase trade with each other under the AfCFTA framework, the economic benefits of this cooperation could probably outweigh the incentives for conflict. Increased trade would also necessitate improved infrastructure, such as roads and railways, which could further enhance regional integration and cooperation. Moreover, as businesses and industries in these countries become more intertwined, there would be greater pressure on governments to resolve disputes through dialogue rather than through violence.
Job Creation and Poverty Reduction
Another critical aspect of the AfCFTA’s potential to promote peace in the Great Lakes region is its ability to create jobs and reduce poverty. Unemployment and poverty are often underlying causes of conflict, as they create conditions where individuals are more likely to join armed groups or engage in criminal activities. By boosting economic growth and creating jobs, the AfCFTA could help address these root causes of conflict.
The manufacturing and services sectors are expected to benefit significantly from the AfCFTA, creating new employment opportunities for millions of Africans. In the Great Lakes region, this could be particularly impactful, as many of the conflicts in the area have been driven by competition over scarce resources. If people have access to stable jobs and incomes, they are less likely to be drawn into violent conflicts.
Furthermore, the AfCFTA could promote inclusive economic growth by providing opportunities for marginalized groups, such as women and youth, who are often disproportionately affected by poverty and conflict. By empowering these groups economically, the AfCFTA could contribute to social cohesion and stability in the region.
Reducing Illicit Trade and Resource Exploitation
The Great Lakes region has long been plagued by the illegal exploitation of natural resources, which has fueled conflicts and financed armed groups. The AfCFTA could help reduce this illicit trade by promoting formal trade channels and improving governance in the natural resource sector.
Under the AfCFTA, member states are encouraged to harmonize their trade policies and improve customs procedures, which could make it more difficult for illegal goods to cross borders. Additionally, by creating a more transparent and regulated trade environment, the AfCFTA could reduce the incentives for corruption and resource exploitation. This would not only weaken the financial power of armed groups but also ensure that the benefits of resource wealth are more equitably distributed among the population.
Strengthening Regional Institutions
The successful implementation of the AfCFTA will require strong regional institutions to oversee the agreement and resolve any disputes that arise. In the Great Lakes region, where institutions are often weak or dysfunctional, the AfCFTA could strengthen governance structures.
For example, the AfCFTA Secretariat, which is responsible for coordinating the implementation of the agreement, could work with regional organizations such as the East African Community (EAC) and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) to enhance their capacity to manage trade and resolve conflicts. Strengthening these institutions would not only facilitate the smooth functioning of the AfCFTA but also contribute to broader efforts to promote peace and stability in the region.
Challenges and call to action
While the AfCFTA holds significant promise, its potential to promote peace in the Great Lakes region will not be realized without overcoming several challenges. First and foremost, the region’s security situation remains fragile, with ongoing conflicts in eastern parts of the DRC and tensions between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and between Rwanda and Burundi. Ensuring that the benefits of the AfCFTA reach conflict-affected areas will require targeted efforts to improve security and address the specific needs of these regions.
Moreover, the success of the AfCFTA will depend on the political will of member states to implement the agreement fully. This includes reducing tariffs, removing non-tariff barriers, and investing in infrastructure. Without the commitment of national governments, the AfCFTA’s potential to drive economic growth and promote peace will be limited.
Finally, there is a need for greater awareness and capacity-building among businesses and local communities in the Great Lakes region. Many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) may lack the knowledge or resources to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the AfCFTA. Providing training and support to these businesses will be essential for ensuring that the benefits of the agreement are widely shared.
Conclusion
In conclusion, The link between peace, security and development is well established: peace and security are prerequisites for sustainable economic development and sustainable economic development ,in turn, reinforces peace and security. The economic revitalization brought by the AfCFTA carries substantial peace and dividends: greater integration, interdependence, and cooperation strongly promote peace.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a transformative opportunity for the Great Lakes region to transition from a cycle of conflict to one of cooperation and prosperity. By fostering economic interdependence, creating jobs, reducing poverty, curbing illicit trade, and strengthening regional institutions, the AfCFTA has the potential to address some of the underlying drivers of instability in the region.
However, realizing this vision will require overcoming significant challenges, including ongoing security concerns and the need for strong political will and institutional support. With targeted efforts to ensure that the benefits of the AfCFTA reach all corners of the Great Lakes, particularly those affected by conflict, the agreement could serve as a powerful tool for peacebuilding and economic development.
Works Cited
Fofack, H. (2020, December). Making the AfCFTA work for “the Africa We Want”. Retrieved from Africa Growth Initiative: brookings.edu
Zongwe, D. P. (2024, January/ February). The Law, the Economics, and the Research. Retrieved from The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): nyulawglobal.org
Ngom, M. (2023). AfCFTA: Reaping the benefits of the world’s most youth and women- friendly trade agreement. United Nations Africa Renewal.
Trade Law Centre. (2023, September 6). Retrieved from https://www.tralac.org/resources/infographic/137-95-status-of-afcfta-ratification.html.
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