As Malawi approaches its general elections on 16 September 2025, the country is facing a profound political and economic crisis. A tragic leadership vacuum, soaring inflation, foreign‑exchange shortages, and growing public distrust have cast doubt on President Lazarus Chakwera’s promise of a “new dawn.” The mood among many citizens is one of disillusionment—some are even calling for a boycott of the ballot box.
A Leadership Vacuum After Chilima’s Death
The political landscape shifted dramatically when Vice President Saulos Klaus Chilima died in a military Dornier 228 plane crash on 10 June 2024. Chilima—co‑founder of the United Transformation Movement (UTM) and Chakwera’s deputy in the Tonse alliance—was widely seen as a potential challenger and an energetic reformer. His death not only caused national mourning but also unravelled the alliance that secured Chakwera’s 2020 victory (Reuters, 2024a).
Following the tragedy, the UTM pulled out as a partner of the ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP), leaving Chakwera without a strong ally in the run-up to the election (Reuters, 2024b). The MCP has since had to shoulder the campaign alone, straining its political capital and organizational capacity (Investigative Malawi, 2025a).
Economic Turmoil: Inflation, Forex Collapse, and Public Outrage
Malawi is currently enduring one of its worst economic crises in decades. Inflation surged to approximately 28 percent year‑on‑year by January 2025, driven largely by a foreign‑exchange shortage that has crippled the import of essentials like fuel, medicines, and fertilizer (Reuters, 2025).
The Malawian kwacha has collapsed, losing well over half its value since 2022—with major devaluations in 2022 (~25%) and late 2023 (~44%)—yet still trading at a significant black-market premium in early 2025 (Investigative Malawi, 2025b). Official reserves have fallen below a one-month import cover, creating crippling shortages of fuel and basic goods. At one point, the country had only 5 days of petrol and 15 days of diesel stock—far short of the 90-day buffer required (Investigative Malawi, 2025b).
Austerity has reached into everyday life: motorists queue for hours at gas stations, public transport fares have soared, trucks carrying goods remain idle, ambulances can’t run, and markets are fuelled by poverty and desperation. Annual GDP deficit has ballooned—estimated near 9.6% of GDP, with public debt around 86% of GDP by late 2024—and credit restructuring negotiations remain ongoing (Reuters, 2025). Growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded from 4.0% to 3.2% as rising costs spurred protests in Lilongwe and Blantyre (Reuters, 2025).
Promises Unfulfilled: The “New Dawn” That Never Arrived
When Chakwera was elected in 2020, he was seen as a reformist heralding a new era. Yet today, many Malawians see unmet promises and stalling progress. The pledge to create one million jobs, a centerpiece of his mandate, remains widely derided as a national punchline amid rampant unemployment and underemployment (Investigative Malawi, 2025b).
Corruption remains deeply ingrained. Though Chakwera initially pledged a thorough anti-corruption campaign, critics say nepotism and cronyism have re-emerged in appointments, and independent bodies like the Anti‑Corruption Bureau have been undermined—its director resigned in 2024 amid funding cuts and political interference (Investigative Malawi, 2025b; Africa Center, 2025). Public trust has eroded as the electorate sees mixed signals: some probes pursued, others conveniently stalled.
Elections in the Shadow of Disillusionment
Voter enthusiasm is waning. Civil society organisations and ordinary citizens have voiced concern over misgovernance, corruption, and the government’s failure to alleviate economic hardship (CHR, 2025). Calls not to vote have surfaced among disillusioned youth and urban poor. Turnout, which was previously above 70%, is now uncertain.
Chakwera faces a revitalised opposition. Former President Peter Mutharika, endorsed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has re-emerged as his principal rival, appealing to those nostalgic for relative stability during his term—despite corruption allegations (Reuters, 2024c). Joyce Banda, another former president, has also indicated presidential ambitions with her People’s Party (Africa Center, 2025).
With no dominant alliance partner like the UTM backing him, Chakwera’s path to re-election hinges on whether voter fatigue and economic pain can be offset by urgent reforms and credible policies.
The Stakes of September 16, 2025
The upcoming election on 16 September 2025 is more than a political contest. It’s a referendum on whether the hope that propelled Chakwera into office remains intact or has turned to frustration and skepticism (Investigative Malawi, 2025a).
For many Malawians, the choice is whether to lend their vote to a government that has failed to deliver, or to place a bet on a return to the familiar—despite old concerns of graft and cronyism. Civic institutions, electoral transparency, anti-corruption credibility, and concrete economic relief will be decisive issues.
Conclusion
Malawi’s approaching election is shaped by intersecting crises: the tragic loss of Vice President Chilima and the fracturing of alliance politics; a grinding economic crisis marked by inflation, foreign-exchange collapse, and shortages; and a citizens’ sense of broken promises. Whether Chakwera can revive confidence—and voters—remains to be seen. For many, September 16, 2025 may be the moment Malawi either reclaims hope or embraces change by other hands.
References
Africa Center. (2025, January). Malawi’s economic woes and electoral stakes. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2025-elections/malawi/
CHR. (2025). Op-Ed: What the world needs to know about Malawi’s 2025 elections. https://www.chr.up.ac.za/opinion-pieces/4018-op-ed-what-the-world-needs-to-know-about-malawi-s-2025-elections
Investigative Malawi. (2025a, June). From Mandate to Meltdown: Chakwera’s tumultuous road to 2025. https://www.investigative-malawi.org/2117/from-mandate-to-meltdown-chakweras-tumultuous-road-to-2025/
Investigative Malawi. (2025b, March). Malawi’s Broken Promise: ‘From Hope to Crisis’. https://www.investigative-malawi.org/1866/malawis-broken-promise-from-hope-to-crisis/
Reuters. (2024a, June 11). Malawi Vice President Chilima and nine others killed in plane crash. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/airplane-carrying-malawi-vice-president-may-have-crashed-forest-defence-force-2024-06-11/
Reuters. (2024b, August 9). Malawi President Chakwera secures his party’s support for second term bid. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/malawi-president-chakwera-secures-his-partys-support-second-term-bid-2024-08-09/
Reuters. (2024c, August 18). Malawi’s main opposition endorses ex-president Mutharika to run in 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/malawis-main-opposition-endorses-ex-president-mutharika-run-2025-2024-08-18/
Reuters. (2025, February 28). Malawi lowers 2025 growth forecast as inflation spurs protests. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/malawi-cuts-2025-growth-forecast-inflation-spurs-street-protests-2025-02-28/
